【MACRO Insight】Trump's tariff policy takes a sharp turn: safe-haven asset game after the market's vi

On April 9, 2025, just 13 hours after the high “reciprocal tariffs” imposed by the United States on dozens of trading partners came into effect, the Trump administration suddenly announced a 90-day suspension of tariffs, reducing the tariff rate to 10%. This dramatic turn of events stemmed from the violent turmoil in the financial markets—trillions of dollars evaporated from U.S. stocks in a single day after the tariffs came into effect, and Treasury yields soared to the level at the beginning of the epidemic, forcing the Trump administration to make an emergency turn.

In addition, the 25% steel and aluminum tariffs that took effect in March and the 25% automobile tariffs implemented on April 2 are still in effect, and Trump also hinted that tariffs may be imposed on the pharmaceutical industry in the future. This policy adjustment was seen by the outside world as a microcosm of "chaotic governance", and Senate Democratic leader Schumer criticized him for "treating governance as a joke."

The policy shift triggered a sharp market rebound. The three major U.S. stock indexes recorded historic gains: the Dow Jones closed up 7.87%, the S&P 500 rose 9.52%, and the Nasdaq soared 12.16%, all of which were the largest single-day gains in recent years. WTI crude oil soared 8% to break through $62 per barrel, and Brent crude oil rose nearly 7%; spot gold rose 3.75% during the session, the largest intraday fluctuation since 2020. On April 10, the gold price in the Asian session once reached $3,120 per ounce, approaching the historical high.

The reversal of market sentiment reflects expectations of a short-term easing of the tariff conflict. Traders have slashed their bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in May and are instead expecting three rate cuts in June. However, Wall Street generally warns that the "tariff war is far from over": the 90-day suspension period is only a negotiation window, and companies still face long-term uncertainties.

Gold has become the biggest winner in the policy reversals. Since 2025, the price of gold has risen by 18%. After breaking through the $3,000 mark, TD Securities pointed out that its "hedge against instability" attribute continues to strengthen. The World Gold Council emphasized that tariff uncertainty, the Fed's interest rate cut expectations and central bank gold purchases have jointly pushed gold prices higher. Bank of America maintained its target price of $3,500, believing that "the trend of de-dollarization is good for gold."

In contrast, traditional safe-haven assets performed differently: the US dollar index fell 1% amid tariff turmoil, and Deutsche Bank questioned its safe-haven status due to the widening of the US current account deficit and the decline in correlation with risky assets; the Japanese yen and Swiss franc were supported by capital inflows. U.S. Treasuries were sold off, with the 30-year yield soaring to 4.96%, the highest since March 2020.

The market's interpretation of the tariff suspension is polarized. Philadelphia National Investment Management Group believes that "progress has been made in the negotiations", but warns that "surges and plunges are equally dangerous"; New York Oxford Economics pointed out that policy ambiguity has not been eliminated and "daily changes in tariff levels are the biggest risk". B. RILEY Wealth Management mentioned that $2 trillion of buying in 8 minutes was due to "fake news", and the carnival after the policy was implemented now reflects the market's extreme desire for certainty.

Gold analyst Nicky Shiels raised his gold price forecast to $2,950 in 2025, believing that "gold is the best protective asset in a stagflationary environment", but lowered his silver forecast to $34.50 because industrial demand was dragged down by the trade war. Former Treasury Secretary Summers warned that "reckless policies are not out of danger", and the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting also showed that policymakers were concerned about "the difficult trade-off between rising inflation and slowing growth."

The Trump administration's tariff "brake" has won a short-term respite for the market, but it is essentially the product of policy swings. In 90 days, global trade negotiations, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and US economic data will become key variables. The safe-haven charm of gold continues to stand out amid uncertainty, and whether the carnival of US stocks can continue and whether traditional safe-haven assets can regain confidence still depends on the final direction of this "tariff marathon".