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Abstract:In today's rapidly changing global economy, the G20 Finance Ministers' Meeting, as an important platform for coordinating international economic policies, always attracts significant attention. However, the upcoming G20 Finance Ministers' Meeting scheduled for Thursday to Friday (July 17 to July 18) in Durban, South Africa, is shrouded in uncertainty due to a series of unexpected developments.
In today's rapidly changing global economy, the G20 Finance Ministers' Meeting, as an important platform for coordinating international economic policies, always attracts significant attention. However, the upcoming G20 Finance Ministers' Meeting scheduled for Thursday to Friday (July 17 to July 18) in Durban, South Africa, is shrouded in uncertainty due to a series of unexpected developments. The absence of U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent, Trump's tariff threats against BRICS countries, and the growing tensions between Washington and BRICS nations have all added uncertainty to this highly anticipated meeting.
Bessent's absence sparks debate, G20 authority once again put to the test
As the world's largest economy, the U.S. Treasury Secretary plays a pivotal role at G20 meetings. However, Bessent's absence this time is not an isolated incident. As early as the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting held in Cape Town, South Africa, in February 2025, Bessent had already skipped the meeting citing other commitments, drawing widespread international attention. At the time, the absence of key officials, including Besant, had already prompted external scrutiny of the G20's effectiveness and authority as the core platform for global economic governance. Now, Besant's repeated absence from the Durban meeting has further intensified concerns about the G20's functionality.
Josh Lipsky, Director of International Economics at the Atlantic Council, a U.S. think tank, was blunt in his assessment: ‘When representatives from the world's largest economy are absent from meetings, especially at the highest political levels, the issue becomes extremely serious.’ He further noted that Bensent's absence not only affects the quality of discussions at the meeting but may also undermine the long-term viability of the G20 as a multilateral cooperation mechanism.
Lipsky's concerns are not unfounded. As a platform comprising the world's major economies, the G20's core mission is to address global economic challenges through coordination and cooperation. However, the consecutive absences of U.S. officials have led outsiders to question whether this mechanism can still effectively address increasingly complex geo-economic issues.
Lipsky also mentioned that Besant's absence may signal that the United States, when it assumes the G20 presidency in 2026, will push for a more ‘streamlined’ and ‘back-to-basics’ agenda. This statement has sparked speculation about the United States' future role in the G20 and raised concerns that the G20 may gradually become marginalised due to shifts in the attitudes of major powers.
Trump's tariff threats add fuel to the fire, escalating geo-economic tensions
Just before the Durban conference, former US President Trump once again threatened to impose high tariffs on BRICS countries, a statement that undoubtedly added more tension to the meeting. After expanding in recent years, the BRICS group now includes eight G20 member countries, including host South Africa. This targeted tariff threat not only heightened tensions at the summit but also raised concerns about the future of global economic cooperation. As the host country, South Africa had hoped to use the G20 platform to showcase its influence in the global economy, but Trump's hardline stance has undoubtedly placed additional pressure on South Africa and the entire BRICS group.
Brad Setser, an expert at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), pointed out that the G20 was established on the basic premise that major global economies share common interests in a stable and open global economy. However, Trump's policy orientation runs counter to this. He favours promoting a closed, protectionist-oriented global economic system rather than maintaining the stability and openness of the global economy. This ideological divide not only exacerbates the contradictions between the BRICS countries and the United States but also increases the difficulty of coordination within the G20. Setser's analysis sharply highlights the current challenges in global economic governance: when the objectives of major economies are no longer aligned, can the G20's cooperative mechanisms still function effectively?
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